Lead Prices Fluctuate Downward as Smelters Show Increased Willingness for Maintenance; January Secondary Lead Production May Decrease by Over 45,000 mt? [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, December 31:

In December 2024, secondary crude lead production increased slightly, up 0.6% MoM but down 6.03% YoY. Secondary refined lead production fell 0.97% MoM and dropped 10.34% YoY. Multiple regions issued frequent orange alerts for heavy pollution weather in December, significantly impacting secondary lead smelters in provinces such as Anhui, Henan, and Shandong due to environmental protection-related controls. As a major production area for secondary lead, Anhui experienced frequent production cuts and shutdowns during the month. In Henan and Jiangsu, vehicle transportation was restricted, affecting raw material arrivals, while in Shandong, smelters faced delays in ramping up production after resuming operations due to environmental controls. Overall, the increase in secondary lead production in December fell short of expectations.

Recently, lead prices have fluctuated downward, severely compressing secondary lead profits. Combined with the onset of winter, lower temperatures affecting furnace operations (especially in north China), and tight battery scrap supply, smelters showed a strong willingness for maintenance. Some smelters indicated plans for maintenance in January, with shutdown dates concentrated at month-end, though a few smelters mentioned the possibility of halting production in early January. According to SMM statistics, secondary lead production in January 2025 is expected to decline significantly, with a potential drop exceeding 45,000 mt.